The market price of rapeseed meal continues to decline or will ease in the late period

Affected by the continuous adjustment of the US soybean market in the nearby surrounding markets and the declining demand in the domestic market, in September, the decline in domestic vegetable prices was more pronounced. After the 10.1 holiday, prices fell further. This round of cumulative decline has more than 300 yuan / ton. However, due to the global supply of vegetable protein raw materials is still tight, the decline of the domestic vegetable meal may ease in the later period.

First, the declining demand and the surrounding markets have caused a sympathetic resonance. The domestic vegetable market has recently fallen to a large extent. After China's “fall in autumn” this year, the temperature in most regions has changed rapidly, which has brought a lot of production activities to the entire aquaculture industry in China. It is unfavorable, and it makes the demand for foodstuffs from feed companies drop rapidly. At the same time, the US soybean market in the United States, concentrated listing of soybeans and South America is about to start sowing, the European debt crisis recurring waves, have also increased the pressure on the domestic vegetable market price pressure. At present, domestic domestic vegetable market prices in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are concentrated at RMB 2,500-2,700/ton, a drop from the previous highs to RMB 300-400/ton.

Second, the global vegetable protein raw material supply is still tight, the domestic vegetable meal will decline in the late may ease Although the early period of CBOT soybean price decline is relatively large, but the future global oil and vegetable oil and vegetable protein supply situation is very grim, supply pressure will fully ease at least Wait until the second quarter of next year. Therefore, the prices of global vegetable protein raw materials still have the ability to re-upward in the later period. In particular, once the weather in South America is not conducive to crop growth at a later stage, there will undoubtedly be a wave of counterattack in the entire market. For this reason, the decline in the domestic vegetable basket, which has already accumulated a large amount of adjustment, is expected to ease. However, the short-term market price pressure still exists.

To sum up, under the background that the aquaculture industry has entered the off-season and CBOT soybean prices have been adjusted continuously, the prices of domestic rapeseed meal market continued to fall after entering September, with a cumulative drop of 300-400 yuan/ton. However, given that the global supply of vegetable protein remains in a relatively tight period for a relatively long period of time, the fall of US soybeans in the latter part of the year will generally be relatively limited, so the late fall trend of the domestic vegetable market is also expected to ease, especially When the current domestic vegetable market still has a relatively clear price/performance ratio. However, we can also see that in the short term the domestic vegetable market will remain in a weak pattern.